New research reveals that the general public (middle class) will become 40% poorer if global temperatures rise by 4°C.
Economic models have underestimated the impact of global warming on people’s wealth. A 4°C rise in global temperatures could push the average and middle class into poverty by 40%, a new study finds, nearly four times more than some estimates.
New research in the journal Environmental Research Letters reveals that global GDP, or per capita income, would fall by 16% even with tighter controls on global warming. A 4°C rise in global warming would cut income by 40% for the average and middle class.
“In a warmer future, we can expect a cascade of supply chain disruptions caused by extreme weather events across the globe,” said Dr Timothy Neal, from the University of New South Wales’ Climate Risk and Response Institute and author of the study.
“Reshaping economic models to account for the severe impacts of climate change on the global scale and supply chains seems urgently needed, so that countries can fully take responsibility for their economic vulnerability to climate change, and then do the most obvious thing: reduce emissions.”
But many economists disagree with the study. “If climate change makes certain activities, such as agriculture, unviable in one part of the world, the increased output will come from elsewhere,” said Professor Frank Jotso, a climate policy expert at the Australian National University who was not involved in the research.
While some experts have previously argued that warming could benefit some regions more, particularly colder regions such as Canada, Russia and northern Europe, Neal said all countries would be affected because they are already interconnected by trade economies.
“Honestly, I think the economic impact [of climate change] could be worse,” said Mark Lawrence, who studies climate risk as a professor in practice at the University of Adelaide and has worked in senior financial risk management roles at several major financial institutions.
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