Brace for Scorching Years Ahead, Top Meteorologists Warn
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK Met Office have forecast an 80% chance that the world will break its annual average temperature record again within the next five years. Even more concerning, there is now a very high likelihood that global temperatures will exceed the limit set under the Paris Agreement a decade ago.
“Every tenth of a degree of human-caused global warming increases the frequency and severity of extreme events—like heatwaves, floods, wildfires, and stronger hurricanes fueled by human activity.”
World Edging Closer to 2°C Threshold for the First Time
For the first time ever, there is a chance—however small—that the global annual average temperature could exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This 2°C mark is considered the second critical “red line” under the 2015 Paris Agreement.
A decade ago, the same group of scientists estimated only a 1% chance of surpassing the 1.5°C threshold. But that threshold was already breached in the past year. Now, in 2024, the possibility of hitting the 2°C mark is starting to materialize.
However, even though this year’s global temperature is projected to exceed 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement defines breaches based on a 20-year average—so it is not yet considered an official violation of the target.
Rising Heat Will Claim More Lives Without Action
“If the global average temperature over the next five years exceeds 1.5°C, people will face a significantly higher risk of extreme heatwaves than ever before.”
Scientists compare rising global temperatures to riding an escalator, with El Niño acting as a force that gives the planet a temporary “jump.” The problem, however, is that after every El Niño–induced spike, the Earth never cools back down to previous levels.
Source: PBS.org
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